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Creation of the Regional Econometric Model for Gross Regional Domestic Product Target-Setting and Building Scenarios as Aid In Policy Making (2017-2018)

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Creation of the Regional Econometric Model for Gross Regional Domestic Product Target-Setting and Building Scenarios as Aid In Policy Making (2017-2018)

National Economic and Development Authority

 

REM report cover_A_finalThe project’s key outputs are the construction of six¬†macroeconometric models for each of the regions of Mindanao or REM-Mindanao, and capacity-building exercises.

Briefly, REM-Mindanao is a model capable of generating macroeconomic outcomes for regional production, expenditures, prices and employment. It is useful for planning and target setting in the short to medium term. The first of its kind in the Philippines, the equations of each regional model were based on macroeconomic theory and existing macroeconometric models in the Philippines and beyond. Using data specific to the regions of Mindanao, the coefficients and specific forms of the equations were specified using econometric techniques. After consulting with regional stakeholders, the model was put to use in the construction of baseline and alternative scenarios for each region through the year 2023. Staff from the NEDA Regional Offices and RPDO-ARMM were also trained in using and updating the model.

As REM-Mindanao is just a first step in model building at the sub-national level in Mindanao and the Philippines as whole, it is expected that future iterations of the model will update and revise the model to make it more powerful tool for planning and policy analysis at the regional level. It is hoped that the data limitations that constrained the modeling process will serve as a guide in identifying regional information that statistical agencies need to collect in the future.

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