Study on the Agglomeration Model for Mindanao Regions (2017-2018)

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA)


AGGLO cover AThe key output of the project is the construction of a regional Computable General Equilibrium Model for Mindanao (CGEMM) and the rest of the Philippines, incorporating agglomeration economies, to support the Mindanao Spatial Strategy Development Framework. Such a model will be the first of its kind developed for the Philippines.

The CGEMM was calibrated to 2016 base data for Mindanao and the rest of the Philippines compiled as a social accounting matrix, from both official sources, and primary data collected by a survey of enterprises in Mindanao. After consulting with regional stakeholders, the CGEMM was used to evaluate baseline and alternative scenarios for growth, per capita GRDP, sectoral output, and regional agglomeration. The findings of the study described the output projections and agglomeration measures of Mindanao Regions in 2016 and in 2030.

Staff from NEDA Regional Offices and RPDO-ARMM were also trained in using and updating the model.  CGEMM is a first step in model building at the sub-national level in Mindanao and the Philippines as whole. Future development of the CGEMM, together with statistical systems feeding it with updated information, will make it an even more useful decision support for MSSDF and other regional and national development planning exercises.